AFCON 2021: Group A predictions and analysis
An analysis the teams in Group A to figure out who has the best chance of advancing to the knockout rounds.
The 2021 Africa Cup of Nations is set to kick-off and what better way to start our permutations than in Group A, the group of the host nation.
The format
There are six groups in total containing four teams each, the top two teams at the end of the group stage games advance to the Round of 16 automatically.
But that is only 12 teams, why then is it called "the Round of 16" you ask? That is because the best four third-placed teams also get to progress to make up the numbers.
Group A contains the hosts, Cameroon along with Burkina Faso, Ethiopia and Cape Verde, all teams whom you are most likely now familiar with thanks to Pulse Sports' extensive AFCON 2021 team guides.
But how will these teams rank after three games each? Let us find out.
Group winner
Cameroon are the obvious team to finish top of the group for multiple reasons: they have the strongest squad on paper and playing on home soil should give them a boost.
There is a proven statistical advantage to hosting the Africa Cup of Nations, seven of the previous 10 host nations (excluding co-hosted editions) have finished top of their groups and Cameroon should be no different.
The Cameroonians also have the player to watch out for in this group, Karl Toko-Ekambi who has been having a good season for Lyon with 11 goals and four assists across all competitions.
He's struggled to replicate those performances for Cameroon though with only five goals in 40 games in the famous green, red and yellow but playing a major tournament at home could help bring the best out of him. This would be terrible news for the other three teams in the group.
The Indomitable Lions are also the highest-ranked team in this group, they sit seventh on the latest CAF rankings and won the AFCON as recently as 2017, all signs point to them winning Group A.
Second & third
The second position is not as straightforward though, as 2013 AFCON finalists Burkina Faso and fast-rising Cape Verde both have a similar chance of qualifying automatically.
Burkina Faso are 11th in Africa according to the CAF rankings and qualified for this tournament unbeaten, conceding only two goals in the process.
Cape Verde on the other hand are 14th on the rankings and can boast of a more impressive qualification process than Burkina Faso despite only finishing second.
Cape Verde was in the same qualifying group as Cameroon and they scaled through unbeaten, getting the better of the Indomitable lions by picking up a draw and an unprecedented 3-1 victory in both games against the hosts.
The results in qualifying against Cameroon serves as the tie-breaker here, Cape Verde should finish second just ahead of Burkina Faso who should do enough to also qualify as a third-place team.
The arrangement of the games favours Cape Verde because they get to play Ethiopia first, so they have an opportunity to steal a march on Burkina Faso whose first game is against Cameroon.
Key match
If those first games play out as expected, Cape Verde would have the upper hand going into the second round of games where they will face Burkina Faso in what is the most important game in this group.
If Cape Verde beats Ethiopia in the first game (which I fully expect them to), they would then have the luxury of playing cautiously against Burkina Faso in the next match because a draw may just be enough to seal their place in the round of 16.
Ethiopia should finish comfortably bottom of the group and crash out as the whipping boys, they are ranked 40th in Africa for a reason.
Projected standings
| Cameroon | 7 pts |
|---|---|
| Cape Verde | 5 pts |
| Burkina Faso | 4 pts |
| Ethiopia | 0 pts |
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