AFCON 2021: Group D predictions and analysis
An analysis of the teams in Group D to figure out who has the best chance of advancing to the knockout rounds.
Group D is the closest to a group of death the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) has to offer: two African football powerhouses in Egypt and Nigeria, complemented by potential dark horses, Sudan and Guinea-Bissau.
Of course, Pulse Sports' extensive AFCON 2021 team guides already tell all there is to know about these teams, but how will Group D pan out? Where will each team finish? What player should you keep an eye out for? All these questions will be answered below.
The Format
Only the top two teams after three games will qualify automatically to the Round of 16. The third-placed teams will then be ranked, with the best four making up the next round.
Group winner
No team in AFCON history can match Egypt for pedigree. The Pharaohs have won the title a record seven times, and although they’ve slowed down over the last decade, they are still automatic favourites for anything AFCON-related.
The conclusion is also aided by Nigeria’s poor Group Stage record at previous AFCON tournaments. For whatever reason, the Super Eagles are customary slow starters and only get in the groove in the knockout phase.
In fact, Nigeria have not finished top of an AFCON group since 2006 in Egypt, which makes it easy to assume that they are more than happy to finish second.
On the other hand, the 2006 squad that topped their group by winning every game was led from the dugout by none other than Augustine Eguavoen, who has recently reassumed the position of Super Eagles head coach on an interim basis.
Perhaps the presence of Eguavoen and the fact that Nigeria currently has a better squad (on paper) than the Egyptians will be enough to help the Super Eagles clinch first position.
Second & third place
If Nigeria does end up finishing first as projected, it means Egypt will take the second automatic spot to advance to the next round ahead of Sudan.
Egypt also has the player to watch: Mohammed Salah who comes into the AFCON as one of the best players in the world. He will prove difficult to deal with for any of the three other teams in this group.
Sudan should finish third with at least three points, beating Guinea-Bissau and keeping the scorelines modest against Egypt and Nigeria is their best shot at qualifying as one of the best third-place teams.
Guinea-Bissau are fast becoming AFCON regulars, they have now qualified for three consecutive AFCON tournaments since their debut in 2017. There is not much to suggest that Guinea-Bissau will do better than the consecutive run of Group Stage exits, they should finish comfortably bottom of this group.
Key match
The match between Nigeria and Egypt is ultimately going to be an important parameter in separating first and second, but it could be more than that.
It is a game between two teams with incredible AFCON pedigree whose recent struggles have caused them to be cautiously optimistic or even downright pessimistic about the 2021 AFCON.
A win for either side in this first game of the tournament would go a long way in restoring confidence for whoever emerges victorious. It could also set the tone for the rest of their tournament and allow the supporters to be bold in their optimism.
Projected standings
| Nigeria | 7 |
|---|---|
| Egypt | 7 |
| Sudan | 3 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 0 |
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